Extreme Flood Events over the Past 300 Years Inferred from Lake Sedimentary Grain Sizes in the Altay Mountains,Northwestern China     

Jianchao Zhou  Jinglu Wu  Haiao Zeng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2018,28(5):773-783

Understanding the temporal variations of extreme floods that occur in response to climate change is essential to anticipate the trends in flood magnitude and frequency in the context of global warming. However, long-term records of paleofloods in arid regions are scarce, thus preventing a thorough understanding of such events. In this study, a reconstruction of paleofloods over the past 300 years was conducted through an analysis of grain sizes from the sediments of Kanas Lake in the Altay Mountains of northwestern China. Results showed that grain parameters and frequency distributions can be used to infer possible abrupt environmental events within the lake sedimentary sequence, and two extreme flood events corresponding to ca. 1736–1765 AD and ca. 1890 AD were further identified based on canonical discriminant analysis(CDA) and coarse percentile versus median grain size(C-M) pattern analysis, both of which occurred during warmer and wetter climate conditions by referring to tree-ring records. These two flood events are also evidenced by lake sedimentary records in the Altay and Tianshan mountains. Furthermore, through a comparison with other records, the flood event from ca. 1736–1765 AD in the study region seems to have occurred in both the arid central Asia and the Alps in Europe, and thus may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) index.  相似文献   

Spatial downscaling of climate variables using three statistical methods in Central Iran     

Zahra Jaberalansar  Mostafa Tarkesh  Mehdi Bassiri 《山地科学学报》2018,15(3):606-617

Spatial downscaling methods are widely used for the production of bioclimatic variables(e.g. temperature and precipitation) in studies related to species ecological niche and drainage basin management and planning. This study applied three different statistical methods, i.e. the moving window regression(MWR), nonparametric multiplicative regression(NPMR), and generalized linear model(GLM), to downscale the annual mean temperature(Bio1) and annual precipitation(Bio12) in central Iran from coarse scale(1 km × 1 km) to fine scale(250 m ×250 m). Elevation, aspect, distance from sea and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) were used as covariates to create downscaled bioclimatic variables. Model assessment was performed by comparing model outcomes with observational data from weather stations. Coefficients of determination(R2), bias, and root-mean-square error(RMSE) were used to evaluate models and covariates. The elevation could effectively justify the changes in bioclimatic factors related to temperature and precipitation. Allthree models could downscale the mean annual temperature data with similar R2, RMSE, and bias values. The MWR had the best performance and highest accuracy in downscaling annual precipitation(R2=0.70; RMSE=123.44). In general, the two nonparametric models, i.e. MWR and NPMR, can be reliably used for the downscaling of bioclimatic variables which have wide applications in species distribution modeling.  相似文献   

Avalanche activity and characteristics of its triggering factors in the western Tianshan Mountains,China     

Jian-sheng Hao  Fa-rong Huang  Yang Liu  Chukwudi Amanambu Amobichukwu  Lan-hai Li

《山地科学学报》2018,15(7):1397-1411

Snow avalanche is a serious threat to the safety of roads in alpine mountains. In the western Tianshan Mountains, large scale avalanches occur every year and affect road safety. There is an urgent need to identify the characteristics of triggering factors for avalanche activity in this region to improve road safety and the management of natural hazards. Based on the observation of avalanche activity along the national road G218 in the western Tianshan Mountains, avalanche event data in combination with meteorological, snowpack and earthquake data were collected and analyzed. The snow climate of the mountain range was examined using a recently developed snow climate classification scheme, and triggering conditions of snow avalanche in different snow climate regions were compared. The results show that snowfall is the most common triggering factor for a natural avalanche and there is high probability of avalanche release with snowfall exceeding 20.4 mm during a snowfall period. Consecutive rise in temperature within three days and daily mean temperature reaching 0.5°C in the following day imply a high probability of temperaturerise-triggered avalanche release. Earthquakes have a significant impact on the formation of large size avalanches in the area. For the period 2011-2017, five cases were identified as a consequence of earthquake with magnitudes of 3.3≤M_L≤5.1 and source-to-site distances of 19~139 km. The Tianshan Mountains are characterized by a continental snow climate with lower snow density, lower snow shear strength and high proportion depth hoar, which explains that both the snowfall and temperature for triggering avalanche release in the continental snow climate of the Tianshan Mountains are lower than that in maritime snow climate and transitional snow climate regions. The findings help forecast avalanche release for mitigating avalanche disaster and assessing the risk of avalanche disaster.  相似文献   

Spatial differentiation in stable isotope compositions of surface waters and its environmental significance in the Issyk-Kul Lake region of Central Asia     

Long Ma  Abuduwaili Jilili  Yao-ming Li 《山地科学学报》2018,15(2):254-263

Stable isotope values of oxygen(~(18)O) and hydrogen(~(2)H) of surface waters were used to study the origin and environmental significances in the Issyk-Kul basin of Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia, which is the most important intermountain basin in the modern Tien Shan orogen. This study is the first analysis of hydrochemical spatial differentiation in the stable isotopes of surface waters in this watershed.75 samples were collected from rivers, springs, lakes,rain and snow during the rainy season in July and August of 2016. Stable isotopes of ~(18)O and ~(2)H were studied for all samples, and cation ratios(Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) were also determined for lake water samples.Stable isotope values from precipitation scattered around the Local Meteoric Water Line(determined from Urumqi Station of the global network of isotopes in precipitation(GNIP)), together with values of the Deuterium excess parameter(d) from 15.3‰ to30.5‰, with an average of 19.8‰, indicating that the moisture sources are primarily from regions with low relative humidity. The δ~(18)O and δ~(2)H values were significantly different between the river and lake samples, indicating that regional evaporation caused the isotopic enrichment of lake water. Geospatial autocorrelation, measured by Moran's I coefficient,indicated weak spatial autocorrelation within stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in the surface waters of the studied area, which is primarily an effect of climate during the water chemistry evolution. The cation ratios Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca in lake water samples were not correlated with the concentration of total dissolved solids, but did show correlation with stable isotopic values, which is significant for paleoenvironmental reconstruction.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the possible slip surface of a highly heterogeneous rock slope using dynamic reduction method     

Guo-qing Chen  Run-qiu Huang  Feng-shou Zhang  Zhen-fei Zhu  Yu-chuan Shi  Jian-chao Wang 《山地科学学报》2018,15(3):672-684

A new method, the dynamic reduction method (DRM) combined with the strain-softening method, was applied to evaluate the possible slip surface of a highly heterogeneous rock slope of the Dagangshan hydropower station in Southwest China. In DRM, only the strength of the failure elements is reduced and the softening reduction factor K is adopted to calculate the strength parameters. The simulation results calculated by DRM show that the further slip surface on the right slope of the Dagangshan hydropower station is limited in the middle part of the slope, while both SRM (strength reduction method) and LEM (limit equilibrium method) predict a failure surface which extends upper and longer. The observations and analysis from the three recorded sliding events indicate that the failure mode predicted by DRM is more likely the scenario. The results in this study illustrate that for highly heterogeneous slopes with geological discontinuities in different length scales, the proposed DRM can provide a reliable prediction of the location of the slip surface.  相似文献   

Spatial distribution of snow depth based on geographically weighted regression kriging in the Bayanbulak Basin of the Tianshan Mountains,China     

Yang Liu  Lan-hai Li  Xi Chen  Jin-Ming Yang  Jian-Sheng Hao 《山地科学学报》2018,15(1):33-45

Snow depth is a general input variable in many models of agriculture,hydrology,climate and ecology.This study makes use of observational data of snow depth and explanatory variables to compare the accuracy and effect of geographically weighted regression kriging(GWRK)and regression kriging(RK)in a spatial interpolation of regional snow depth.The auxiliary variables are analyzed using correlation coefficients and the variance inflation factor(VIF).Three variables,Height,topographic ruggedness index(TRI),and land surface temperature(LST),are used as explanatory variables to establish a regression model for snow depth.The estimated spatial distribution of snow depth in the Bayanbulak Basin of the Tianshan Mountains in China with a spatial resolution of 1 km is obtained.The results indicate that 1)the result of GWRK's accuracy is slightly higher than that of RK(R~2=0.55 vs.R~2=0.50,RMSE(root mean square error)=0.102 m vs.RMSE=0.077 m);2)for the subareas,GWRK and RK exhibit similar estimation results of snow depth.Areas in the Bayanbulak Basin with a snow depth greater than 0.15m are mainly distributed in an elevation range of 2632.00–3269.00 m and the snow in this area comprises 45.00–46.00% of the total amount of snow in this basin.However,the GWRK resulted in more detailed information on snow depth distribution than the RK.The final conclusion is that GWRK is better suited for estimating regional snow depth distribution.  相似文献   

Estimating the properties of weathered bedrock and pilerock interaction from the geological strength index     

Chun-mei Zhou  Wei Shao  Kun-long Yin  Zong-ji Yang 《山地科学学报》2018,15(8):1757-1776

The effect of variable rock mass properties on pile-rock interaction poses a great challenge to the design of stabilizing piles and numerical analysis of pile-rock interaction. The paper presents a novel method to estimate the properties of weathered bedrock, which can be applied to routine design of landslide-stabilizing piles for collivial landslides. The Ercengyan landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China, is the area of interest for this study. A geological investigation and triaxial tests were conducted to estimate the basic parameters, including Geological Strength Index(GSI), uniaxial compressive strength σ_(ci) and Hoek-Brown constant m_i of intact bedrock in the study area. Hoek-Brown criterion was used to estimate mechanical properties of the weathered rock, including elastic modulus E_m, cohesion c, friction angle Φ, and normal ultimate lateral resistance p_(max). A parametric study was performed to evaluate the effect of parameterizations of GSI, σ_(ci) and m_i on the bedrock properties and p-y curves. The estimated rock mass properties were used with PLAXIS 2D software to simulate pile-rock interaction. Effect of GSI on stress at the pile-rock interface and in the rock, pile bending moment, pile shear force, and p-y curve were analysed.  相似文献   

Soil physicochemical properties and vegetation structure along an elevation gradient and implications for the response of alpine plant development to climate change on the northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains     

Yong-sheng Yang  Li Zhang  Hong-qin Li  Hui-dan He  Ya-xi Wei  Jin Luo  Guang-ru Zhang  Yu-ru Huang  Ying-nian Li  Hua-kun Zhou 《山地科学学报》2018,15(5):1006-1019

Elevation is one of key factors to affect changes in the environment, particularly changes in conditions of light, water and heat. Studying the soil physicochemical properties and vegetation structure along an elevation gradient is important for understanding the responses of alpine plants andtheir growing environment to climate change. In this study, we studied plant coverage, plant height, species richness, soil water-holding capacity, soil organic carbon(SOC) and total nitrogen(N) on the northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains at elevations from2124 to 3665 m. The following conclusions were drawn:(1) With the increase of elevation, plant coverage and species richness first increased and then decreased, with the maximum values being at 3177 m.Plant height was significantly and negatively correlated with elevation(r=–0.97, P0.01), and the ratio of decrease with elevation was 0.82 cm·100 m-1.(2) Both soil water-holding capacity and soil porosity increased on the northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains with the increase of elevation. The soil saturated water content at the 0-40 cm depth first increased and then stabilized with a further increase of elevation, and the average ratio of increase was2.44 mm·100 m-1. With the increase of elevation, the average bulk density at the 0-40 cm depth first decreased and then stabilized at 0.89 g/cm3.(3) With the increase of elevation, the average SOC content at the 0-40 cm depths first increased and then decreased,and the average total N content at the 0-40 cm depth first increased and then stabilized. The correlation between average SOC content and average total N content reached significant level. According to the results of this study, the distribution of plants showed a mono-peak curve with increasing elevation on the northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains. The limiting factor for plant growth at the high elevation areas was not soil physicochemical properties, and therefore,global warming will likely facilitate the development of plant at high elevation areas in the Qilian Mountains.  相似文献   

Surface energy balance of Bayi Ice Cap in the middle of Qilian Mountains,China     

Wen-wu Qing  Chun-tan Han  Jun-feng Liu 《山地科学学报》2018,15(6):1229-1240

Energy balance at the glacier surface is important for understanding the impacts of climate change on glaciers. Here, we analyzed the characteristics of the glacier surface energy fluxes along with their contributions to glacier melt on Bayi Ice Cap in Qilian Mountains by using a point-scale energy balance model. The half-hourly meteorological data from an automatic weather station (AWS) located on the glacier was used to drive the energy balance model. The model simulated results could accurately represent the mass-balance observations from the stake near the weather station during summer 2016. Our results showed the net radiation (86%) played an important role in the surface energy balance, and the contribution of the turbulent heat fluxes (14%) to the energy budget was relatively less important. A distinct behavior of energy balance, as compared to other continental glaciers in China (e.g., two adjacent glaciers Laohugou No. 12 Glacier and Qiyi Glacier), is the fact that a sustained period of positive turbulent latent flux exists on Bayi Ice Cap during August, causing faster melt rate in the month of August. Our study also presented the effect of frequent summer snowfall in slowing down surface melt by changing the surface albedo during the beginning of the melting season.  相似文献   

Effects of long-term medieval agriculture on soil properties: A case study from the Kislovodsk basin,Northern Caucasus,Russia     

Elena Chernysheva  Tatiana Khomutova  Flavio Fornasier  Tatiana Kuznetsova  Alexandr Borisov 《山地科学学报》2018,15(6):1171-1185

The chemical properties and biological activities of soils were studied in the vicinity of the medieval settlement Podkumskoe-3 in the Kislovodsk basin (Northern Caucasus, Russia). Between the 5th and 8th centuries this area was ploughed regularly, but it was then abandoned up to the present day. It has been established that past human activity leads to soil undergoing significant transformations in terms of microbial communities and enzyme activity, and that such changes are maintained over long periods. Long-term manuring in the middle of the first millennium AD led to an increase in organic carbon content and the accumulation of nitrate nitrogen. Soils of ancient abandoned fields are associated with increases in microbial biomass, number of saprotrophic bacteria, urease activity, and fungal mycelium biomass. The observed changes in the microbiological and biochemical properties of soil were conditioned by secondary anthropogenically induced succession after the abandonment of arable lands.  相似文献